John Rich:  I threw together a PowerPoint for this debate: “Four Reasons why Facebook is the Next Friendster.” Get ready for the demise of the biggest social platform, courtesy of Google!

Juan Fernando Santos:  I like John’s doomsday scenarios.

John Rich:  Ok, facebook won’t be wiped off the planet. Human technologies never go fully extinct—you can buy a stone axe today if you really want it. Even Friendster is still around as an obscure, awkward game site in Asia.

John McEvoy:  Wow, so now facebook is getting caveman comparisons. Just how big was Friendster?

Rich:  Tens of millions of users.

Gary Templeton:  Before you get too ramped up, I’ll remind you that the Friendster leadership team had major internal disagreements. Facebook is a one-headed monster—Zuckerberg makes the final decisions.

Rich:  Sure, Facebook has one definite leader. But they do have other underlying issues:

Rich:  In a 70,000 person study for customer satisfaction, only 44% of users said that they were fully happy with facebook. This pales in comparison to YouTube, LinkedIn, and other sites on the survey.

McEvoy:  But Google+ wasn’t in this study?

Rich:  No… that’s my point. People aren’t thrilled with facebook; they have still been using it because there hasn’t been another option. Now there is!

Santos:  Ok so they supposedly don’t like facebook, and yet… facebook has 750 million users

Rich:  Man is a social animal. We enjoy networking. But millions of facebook users don’t like facebook’s usability, or the potential for facebook to compromise their privacy.

Santos:  The idea of privacy is overblown! The decisions we make show who we are. If someone gets some info about me and makes a better product for it, that’s fine. I’ll take the shoes that are made with my daily habits in mind.

Templeton:  Back to your slide, John, facebook’s customer survey scores are bound to be lower than even the YouTube or LinkedIn crowd—facebook’s public is bigger. YouTube subscribers are digitally engaged; facebook has to satisfy the casual and the savvy digital browser. Google+ is still in its early adopters stage—you can’t say for sure that this network pleases a wide audience because it’s never had one.

Rich:  Let’s project off what evidence we do have. Look at where the early indications head: facebook lost six million US users in May. Six million less people used facebook in May than in April. Facebook also lost people in other highly industrialized countries. It’s gaining in areas where not new, but think of the US as a leading indicator here.

Santos:  That makes sense. Most of the world is not yet as digital-savvy as the US, but is trending towards this behavior.

Rich: Thank you! Moving on…

Rich:  Facebook forces you to maintain a giant lump of contacts called friends. While people want to organize their relationships, facebook makes you put everyone together. Do you really want your mother to see the same photos that you share with your buddies from college? Of course not. We are different people to different relationships.

Santos:  Sure. That is a temporary advantage of Google+, one that pales in comparison to facebook’s massive user base. If facebook added friend groups, would there be enough incentive to join Google+?

McEvoy:  Actually, you can already group your friends and friend sharing if you know fortran. It’s just a matter of time before this feature isn’t for nerds only.

Templeton:  And to most people, is are the separate friend groups worth the pain of switching or adding a social network? Google+ takes effort, and some of your “circles to be” aren’t making the switch. Is your dad on Google+? The likelihood that my dad switches from facebook to Google+ is pretty slim.

Santos:  Yeah, I’m not sold on this one.

Rich:  Your dad may be a facebooker for life, but plenty of other people are embracing Google+. Next Slide!

Rich:  Facebook needed over a thousand days to hit 20 million users—Google+ got that number in less than a month!

Santos:  These graphs are always accelerating. Really, it’s not fair to do a linear comparison… everything in digital is growing at a quicker rate than when facebook started seven years ago. Plus, facebook first restricted itself to the college community while Google+ lets users invite anyone.

McEvoy:  He’s right. Social networking has become ubiquitous, but that wasn’t the case a few years ago.

Rich:  I am just giving you the facts. People are ready to jump on a new social network; more ready than they have ever been.

McEvoy:  But are these people actually engaged? How many folks made a Google+ profile but now let it sit dormant? The one that they’re checking on a daily basis is facebook.

Templeton: Totally agree. Users stay committed to facebook because of the people, not the technology.

Rich:  What about the people that were committed to Myspace?

McEvoy:  They were mostly teenagers; teens usually make tech transitions quicker than other age groups.

Santos:  And leaving Myspace is not quite the same as leaving facebook. All of Myspace’s customization had it crashing left and right. Users wanted a more stable social network. I don’t think a direct comparison to Myspace is fair, and the Friendster analogy remains ridiculous.

The phone rings. Studiocom Boston EVP Tom Spicer enters the fray.

Rich:  Tom! You’re a little late. I’ve devastated the other side with my “facebook is the next Friendster” presentation.

Spicer:  Well, congrats. I’ll just listen to the final blows.

Templeton: He’s way off base.

John Rich:  The last and most important reason why Google+ will crush facebook? Google itself! This company has indexed the entire internet. They have the top search engine, 200 million email users, the world’s most popular video sharing site, maps, a blogging network, the list goes on…

McEvoy:  They are embracing the web as a platform. Everything is a web app. Their execution is not always spot-on, but the strategy is wonderful.

Spicer: Google+ versus facebook is not a one-on-one fight. We forget how much BIGGER the Google network is than facebook.

Templeton: I agree to some extent. Google has a product net that could badly hurt facebook. As big as facebook is, it’s the company’s only hit product.

McEvoy: Google’s hardware could put the squeeze on facebook. Google has its own line of smartphones…facebook just has a button on a few phones. Millions of facebook users have to access the site through a Google product.

Templeton: But how much does size matter? Facebook does not have to compete head-to-head against all parts of Google, just Google+. Windows is bigger than MacOS, Mac just tries to be better for a select customer base that loves their products.

Santos: Also, let’s remember that Google has failed before. They’re having organization issues with Google TV, though they could fix it. Google Wave, Google Buzz, and Picasa have all carried their share of user issues.

Templeton: I use Picasa!

Santos: No one uses Picasa. You think you use it, you don’t. Be real, everyone uses facebook photo sharing.

Spicer (laughing): He might have a point. Facebook’s size could work against it in another way—their social network is bigger and more cumbersome than the Google+ user base. Any change with facebook can be seen as a huge install change, with potential for user backlash. It’s hard for facebook to innovate and pivot. Google+, at this stage, is more flexible. Facebook’s community may go up in arms over adjustments to the service, even those made in response to Google+.

McEvoy: What about the mini feed implementation? Facebook weathered the storm of some user backlash, and ultimately made their service even more popular.

Santos: That was only a mild innovation—really it just handled the same content differently. The newsfeed simply brought facebook search items to the front.

 

Spicer: Exactly. Now John, I hate to move away from your presentation, but we have to consider this battle from a business angle. Currently, facebook is flush with investor money. But what happens when this company goes public—will cash start to dry up? They have an amazing, engaged user base, but they are in some regards backing into a business model.

Rich:  Google, on the other hand, fits everything into their search-centered business model.

Santos:  Facebook has no shortage of willing investors. By the time that company does go public, its value will be sky-high.

McEvoy:  The cost base to run Facebook is huge. At some point, someone’s going to want returns on their investments. They may only do a billion in revenue!

Rich:  Tom, I totally agree. That brings me to my final slide, with facebook being reduced to niche status and possibly bought out.

Santos:  Oh, come on. Will Google+ grow? Sure. But overtaking facebook and calling for its demise is premature. If I’m building the next thing right now, say it’s a social shopping website…which social network should I use to promote it? Definitely facebook. Maybe I’ll do something smaller on Google+ for my “cool” friends, but facebook is better prepared to drive purchases for my business.

McEvoy:  There are hundreds of thousands of brands that use facebook as a login and embed it in their site. The Like has become a respected marketing metric, and facebook credits now give the platform its own currency.

Templeton:  I am not fully convinced that marketing brands need to pick one. Is there A place or THE place for social networking?

Santos:  I think only one of them can be truly mainstream.

Rich:  If you’re thinking about its niche viability, Google+ certainly has the cool factor.

Santos:  And you certainly have pretty presentation slides.

Templeton: Regardless of the pretty slides, I don’t see facebook taking a nosedive. This brand has been a stalwart in the social media space. Unlike Google, they don’t have a hardware backing. But social networks are about people, and the people are on facebook. If they can manage to adjust their service in response to new threats like Google Plus—by adding circles for instance—they should be able to continue pleasing their user base.

McEvoy:  Well said. Is IBM the same company it was ten years ago? No. Good companies adapt.

Spicer: Facebook will not have the revenue to move like Google, especially after Zuckerberg has to take it public. Five years from now, you’re looking at a niche player that is likely owned by another company.

Templeton: Ok, final count. Five years from now, who’s on top? I say facebook

Spicer: Google+

Rich: Google+

Santos: Facebook

McEvoy: Facebook

Spicer: Ok, so Facebook wins by this group’s count, but I heard some great points on both sides. I’ve got the topic for next week: what should Apple do with the 80 billion dollars they have sitting in the bank?